Carrying Capacity Analysis for Biodiversity-Focused Sustainable Area and Visitor Management: METU Main Campus and Lake Eymir

Short Title: METU Carrying Capacity Project

Project Type: METU BAP – Central Project

Project Duration: 12 Months

Principal Investigator: Prof. Dr. Meryem Beklioğlu – Head of the Department of Biological Sciences, Chair of EKOSAM

General Information

This project aims to strengthen socio-ecological sustainability in areas of critical biological diversity, such as METU Main Campus and Lake Eymir, by scientifically evaluating human use together with ecosystem sensitivities.

The project consists of three core components:

1. Carrying Capacity Analysis

A multidimensional carrying capacity model is being developed based on physical, social, ecological, and managerial variables.

• Physical capacity: Physical characteristics of the area, intensity of use, seasonal effects

• Social capacity: User satisfaction, perceived crowding, visitor profiles

• Ecological capacity: Spatial–temporal distribution of birds and butterflies, sensitive habitats, ecological risks

• Management capacity: Infrastructure, staff, existing practices, and improvement needs

This analysis will support the development of a scientific, evidence-based visitor management plan for METU and Lake Eymir.

2. Compilation of Biodiversity Data (Birds & Butterflies)

For the first time, all bird and butterfly observation records for METU campus and Lake Eymir are being systematically integrated.

• A total of 252 bird species recorded on campus to date are being evaluated.

• The area is an important habitat for numerous butterfly species—some endemic—and fulfills several Natura2000 criteria.

• A database is being created for all species based on location + date information.

• Changes in species over time are being examined using a time-series approach.

This component will form the basis of the updated Birds of METU book and future scientific publications on butterflies.

3. User Information & Participation Design

The project includes design-oriented interventions aimed not only at generating data but also at transforming user behavior.

• Informational panels and guidance elements to be placed in the area

• Micro information points introducing local species

• Digital information layers accessed via QR codes

• Feedback tools through which users can share their opinions

Through this component, a participatory and data-driven area management culture will be established.

Expected Added Value

Upon completion, the project will produce:

• A scientific visitor management plan for METU and Lake Eymir

• Bird and butterfly species lists and a spatial database

• User information and awareness-raising design outputs

• Conference presentations and at least one scientific publication

In addition, the project will directly contribute to METU's sustainable campus policy.